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- 2014 ceasefire: history rhymes
2014 ceasefire: history rhymes
Plus, the only good analysis of the US TikTok ban.
Crystal Andrews
January 19, 2025
I’m back from an extended summer break, nice to be in your inbox again! Very exciting things are coming for Zee Feed this year, which we can talk about soon.
A ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas has been signed. After 470-something days of absolute horror, this is monumental news – and it’s being covered as such. There will be a flurry of news still to come, and a new wave of takes on what this means or what we should do, which can be overwhelming. At moments like this, I find it helpful to zoom out and look at some history too. It brings context that is revealing and often instructive.
As they say, history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
So let’s look at the details of the 2014 Gaza ceasefire between Israel, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
2014 Gaza Ceasefire Deal
The key instigating event of the 2014 Gaza ‘war’ was the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers (aged 16 to 19) by members of Hamas on June 12. Despite knowing the victims had been killed immediately, Israel launched a police and military crackdown in the West Bank to ‘find’ the teenagers, killing 11 Palestinians and arresting hundreds in two weeks. This prompted rocket fire on Israel from Gaza, with Israel launching air strikes on Gaza in return. Israel started a ground invasion of Gaza in mid-July. The war officially started on July 8 and lasted just over a month, ending with a ceasefire agreement on August 26. Just over 2300 Palestinians were killed, and 73 Israelis (mostly soldiers – six civilians were killed).
In order for this to not be a 5000 word newsletter, we’re going to skip over the war itself and the negotiations to get right to the ceasefire deal that was ultimately signed. Forgive me, but I trust you all to research what you need to!
The Deal: As summarised in this Reuters article, the ceasefire agreement had two sections – immediate conditions, and then longer term points for ongoing negotiations.
Immediate ceasefire:
Hamas and PIJ to stop firing into Israel; Israel to stop all military action.
Israel to open border crossings for humanitarian aid and reconstruction equipment to enter.
Palestinian Authority (PA) to take over control of Gaza’s borders from Hamas.
Israel to reduce the ‘security buffer’ inside the Gaza strip border from 300m to 100m.
Israel to extend the Gaza coastline fishing limit to six miles (up from three miles), with the possibility of extending further in future (international standard was 12 miles).
Secondary items:
Israel to release of Palestinian prisoners who were arrested in the initial crackdown.
Freedom for long-term Palestinian prisoners in Israel.
Hamas to return body parts and personal items of Israeli soldiers killed during the war.
Construction of a seaport in Gaza.
Unfreezing of Hamas funds, which it said it needed to pay police, government workers and administrative staff.
Rebuilding the international airport in Gaza, which Israel had closed in 2000 and bombed in 2001.
The immediate ceasefire items had mixed success. The intense bombardment of Gaza stopped (although, as is still true now, attacks never stopped completely); aid was allowed in (but never enough); an agreement between the PA and Hamas over borders was in place (until their ‘Unity government’ arrangement was dissolved in June 2015). Israel did expand the fishing limit to six nautical miles, but did not increase it to 15 nautical miles until April 2019.
On those longer term items… most appear to have been abandoned. More than 10 years later, Gaza does not have a seaport (no, that temporary floating dock does not count). The Yassar Arafat International Airport still looks like this.
Before the 2014 ceasefire was the 2012 ceasefire, and the 2007 ceasefire. After it came the 2022 ceasefire. Which brings us to this…
2025 Ceasefire Deal
I’ve summarised the details of the current ceasefire deal below. Since the deal was first announced on Monday, Israel killed more than 100 people. Thinking of those long term items from 2014, which of the particulars in the new ceasefire arrangement will be abandoned in the same way?
In March 2015 (six months after the 2014 ceasefire came into effect) the UN said it would take 100 years to reconstruct Gaza due to the scale of the destruction, pace of deliveries and the blockade on Gaza. The blockade has never been lifted, so even though the 2025 ceasefire deal specifically mentions a reconstruction effort, it will begin from a starting point that currently looks like this.
So, what now? It is time to think about what advocacy for Palestine looks like if this ceasefire holds, and Israel is no longer actively bombarding Gaza. As we’ve known since the beginning, a ceasefire is the bare minimum – it alone does not advance liberation. The questions of apartheid and genocide remain, with the International Court of Justice case against Israel still sitting in the background.
The Australian Palestinian Advocacy Network has released a statement with specific calls to action for the Australian government for what must follow the ceasefire. For advocates, activist and people who care, a shift in focus to those action points is what comes next.
The 2025 ceasefire deal: Summarised from reporting in Mondoweiss.
Stage 1:
Starts Sun, 19 Jan
Will last 42 days
Cease in all hostilies, warfare, military actions
Hamas to release 33 Israelis who were captured on Oct 7
Israel to release 737 Palestinians being held in Israeli prisons
Initial hostage exchange has a focus on women, people aged 50+ and those with health issues
IDF to withdraw from the populated areas of Gaza Strip on day 1, to allow for displaced Palestinians to return – particularly to northern Gaza
Anyone returning by foot will not be subject to searches
Humanitarian aid to return to Gaza from day 1, at a rate of 600 trucks a day
On Day 16, negotiations about the details of Stage 2 will begin
Stage 2:
Expected to include the release of all remaining Israelis held captive in Gaza (which should be mostly soldiers) and return of bodies
Further release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel, although the details are still TBC
Reconstruction of Gaza to recommence
Further withdrawal of IDF from Gaza, after which the only IDF presence should be along the fence line and some parts of the Gaza-Egypt border (known as the Philadelphi corridor)
Withdrawal of IDF from the Rafah crossing point
Stage 3:
Permanent end to the war.
Smart stuff on the Internet 💭
All the stuff I found on the web that made me think, smile, or have an ‘aha!’ moment. Spend your Sunday reading them – you'll be better off for it:
Why Albanese is in trouble on Nick Feik’s substack
Nick Feik is a journalist and commentator whose work I trust and endorse. This is an illuminating scene-setter for the coming election from Labor’s POV. “He has assiduously worked politics from the inside his whole career, with little aptitude for public presentation. He’s a backroom guy, a strategist, a schemer and a planner. He’s got a way of working within the system, and to date it’s worked for him … [Now] The times call for something else entirely, and it’s not clear he’s capable of recognising this, let alone delivering it.”
TikTok doesn't need America on Garbage Day
Mainstream publications have done a terrible job of covering the TikTok ban developments and analysing the impact. You gotta go to specific tech journalists for good analysis – like this by Ryan Broderick. “But so far ByteDance has been firm that they won’t sell the app, because, well, why would they? If ByteDance can’t access American shoppers through TikTok, why would [it] give an American business any kind of leg up against the other Chinese apps flooding the market, who have always been ByteDance’s true competition … It has never been the Instagram competitor we see it as. It’s an Amazon competitor.”
Gender thinkpieces have forced me to defend Mark Zuckerberg on Crikey
This one is by me! A slightly ranty piece of analysis of Zuck’s comments on the Joe Rogan podcast. “While this new era of unmoderated and non-fact-checked Meta definitely won’t be an improvement, I have a sneaking suspicion the user experience won’t be drastically different.”